“If all of us acted in unison as I act individually there would be no wars and no poverty. I have made myself personally responsible for the fate of every human being who has come my way.”
Thoughts & Observations
The events that started in October 2008 seemed like the start of trip down the wormhole. As the economy spun out of control due to the hubris, fraud and greed of a few in whose hands the future of financial markets rested, our wine industry started to take on water in the ensuing world financial turbulence as outlined by Michael Lewis in The Big Short,” As brands attempted to gain traction, the strategic and tactical marketing sins that were ignored in the halcyon days of the apparent financial boom of the post 9/11 world, were now acting like anchors helping to sink a lot of wine boats. Wineries found that they were facing non-existent or greatly constricted credit-markets. Bulk & case goods values were realistically lowered as the rate of depletions declined, and inventories started to back-up, crowding distributor and winery warehouses. Brand margins were squeezed as significant discounting became the de rigueur marketing tactic to move lazy inventories. In this fabric of the late first decade of the new millenium’s space time continuum, results were at best mixed. The market disequilibrium lacked known values, resulting in a confusing set of solutions; and not ones satisfying the given equation. It seemed that in the singularity of the broad market no one solution existed to pull our industry out of the gravitational force of this financial black hole.
However, conventional wisdom and the popular press tends to focus our view of market trends through the lens of our largest or enterprise winecos, or through those wineries with the most visible profiles. This prismatic look exhibits the logical fallacy of ‘argumentum ad numerum,’ (i.e., the number of followers sways the argument, arguing noise over signal) and on closer view leads us down a path of absurdity. Most USA wineries are family wineries, producing less than 10,000 cases with a significant number producing less than 5,000 cases on an annual basis. We don’t need Stephen Hawking to solve this apparent size dichotomy; but, we just have to observe what it was that allowed some agile family winecos to escape the event horizon and to have thrived in these trying times.
- market research
- a passion for wine
- sharp pricing tactics
- a laser-like focus on quality
- significant channel diversity
- client relationship development
- a clear route to market strategy
- key lighthouse account placement
- indy and mid-chain grocery distribution
- communicating real points of differentiation
- incorporating a vibrant DTC & DTT sales plan
- focus and delivery of superior customer service
- website development that allows for intuitive eSales activity
- utilizing regional and/or national restaurant account targeting
- adopting integrated sales-focused drinks industry CRM technology
There has been an apparent turn-around in the wine market, starting in mid-August of 2009. This has been true especially for wines above $20/bottle. But, there will be bumps and plateaus in the road ahead. In the opinion of Think Wine Marketing the three-tier distribution system presents significant challenges for small family wineries, and the support of HR5034 by three-tier wholesalers is a serious affront to family winery/distributor relationships. So, those lessons adopted and/or observed during the Great Recession should not be shelved as we approach a brighter business climate. Let’s not do this time warp again.
Taste Napa Valley
As always events large and small hosted by the Napa Valley Vintners are events not to missed, and Taste Napa Valley 2010 exceeded all expectations. The air was heavy, almost tropical, and the skies were dark, but spirits were high and smiles were everywhere – on the faces of staff, volunteers, chefs, vintners and guests. The early start and the iconic winery location marked a change in the public face displayed by Napa Valley to guests from the four corners of the wine world. This was a return to the sprit that I remember that was in place back in the early days of the Napa Valley Vintner get-togethers, the ones hosted by Hans Kornell. While the food, wine and celebrity meter was off the hook, this was just a gathering of Napa Valley’s agribusiness business community shared with wine consumers for the benefit of numerable Napa County non-profits. If the positive results of this year’s earlier Napa Valley Vintners’ Annual Mid-Winter Barrel Auction for the Trade, were to replicated at the Auction Napa Valley 2010, a good indicator was the Friday June 4th Barrel/eAuction at the Rubicon Estate. There seemed to be a palpable excitement displayed by the more than 2,000 attendees at the grand courtyard food and wine tasting, and the active bidding for the Barrels by ballot or though the eAuction was robust. Incorporating a mix of technology for the eAuction was timely and displayed a recognition that eCommerce now plays a key role in the wine business and at contemporary wine auctions. But a large part of the auction was the interaction of guests with names or faces previously only seen by most visitors in print, on TV or on the web. Those who live here often forget that not only do we live in one of the most beautiful places in the world, but the people we see in our everyday work lives… the ones who work so hard in our restaurants and wineries are in fact celebrities. And these celebrities of the food and wine world were cranking out good times, good will, great food and great wines.
There were so many good wines to try, and so little time. I read recently somewhere that Napa Valley winemakers should forget about trying to make Sauvignon Blanc. Well,besides the ludicrous nature of those comments, two memorable Sauvignon Blancs that I had a chance to try were the Araujo Eisle, and Farella-Park . After sharing a Glass of the 2003 J Schram with my friends at Schramsberg, I headed to the caves with about 1,500 new friends for tastes of Blackbird, Cornerstone, COHO, J. Davies, Oberon, Rubicon, Shafer and on and on. My preliminary impression of the 2008 Napa Valley reds based on about 15 separate barrel samples, is that at this point in their evolution they’re displaying density of flavor, saturation of color and impeccable balance. Can’t wait until these wines hit the market.
What follows are some excerpts from Think Wine Marketing’s conversations with winemakers and vintners at Auction Napa Valley: Since the first of the year market conditions have improved significantly and that results have returned to a new normal. Consumers, ones who always had the ability to spend on affordable luxuries are now willing to do so. Encouraging news supporting a strong rebound for Napa Valley wines is that more than a few small family wineries reported being sold-out of their current releases. I was also told that lessons learned in the past 2 years will be incorporated into sales and marketing strategies going forward. I also heard that the stresses encountered in the marketplace brought home that we are all just farmers, growing, making and marketing wine to people on a one-on-one basis. Perhaps my favorite conversation was with a passionate vintner and member of the Auction Napa Valley steering committee. We talked about the journey through the Great Recession to the current recovery – “it was all about the journey, and not about the end-point.”
My take away from Taste Napa Valley and Auction Napa Valley 2010 is that those of us in the wine business should be proud to work with people who realize that involvement in the greater community in which they live and work is a privilege to be exercised. Auction Napa Valley 2010 proceeds are reported to be $8.51 million, a 49% increase over the 2009 results. Kudos to the efforts of the Napa Valley Vintners, Rubicon Estate, Meadowood, the volunteers, vintners, chefs and bidders for such spectacular results.
Copyright © 2010 Think Wine Marketing Blog® All rights reserved.